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Real GDP is now 0.8% larger than it was at its peak just prior to COVID.

Many are convinced that a US stock market correction, or even a bear market, is inevitable.

Is the United States’ job market tight?  Well, that totally depends on your perspective.

Without fully opening up, there can be no comparisons to previous recoveries.  And using the past year to argue that government spending works misunderstands where real wealth comes from.

Mix extremely loose monetary policy, a federal government cutting checks like it’s going out of style, and extensive roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines, and what do you get?  Answer: Some really strong economic data.

Every period of higher inflation is not going to look exactly the same.

The market is still undervalued, the Fed is easy, stimulus will boost the economy by borrowing from the future, and COVID data are very positive. 

The double-dip recession so many feared didn’t arrive in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it certainly doesn’t look like it will happen in early 2021, either.

Policy matters, but it’s entrepreneurs that ultimately drive economic growth.  

Give Thanks!  The US economy continues to heal.  Payrolls keep growing, unemployment claims – though still elevated – are shrinking, key measures of the manufacturing and service sectors remain well into positive territory, and, as this week should show, both retail sales and industrial production remain on an upward trajectory. While some investors are concerned…